粤港澳大湾区背景下珠三角城市群经济一体化与城市关联分析

Analysis of economic integration and city association in pearl river delta urban agglomeration in the background of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

为研究粤港澳大湾区背景下珠三角经济区各城市区经济之间的联系程度及变化情况,探究广州和深圳两大中心城市在整个珠三角城市群发展过程扮演的角色,选取珠三角九大城市2000~2016年相关经济数据,一方面从GDP、劳动和资本3个方面运用KLD散度对珠三角城市群的经济一体化程度进行测算;另一方面结合引力模型和ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验以及Granger因果关系等分析方法对珠三角城市群内经济体之间的经济关联性进行实证分析。研究认为,珠三角城市群经济一体化程度呈现两阶段发展特征,在2013年之前呈逐渐加强趋势,但随后不断减弱;劳动和资本一体化程度整体上远高于GDP一体化程度,经济发展不平衡对珠三角城市群经济一体化程度影响较大;广州经济发展的虹吸效应明显,深圳经济发展的独立性较强,两大中心城市对城市群内部其他经济体经济发展的拉动作用有待加强。广州要继续发挥服务和教育产业优势,积极寻求与其经济合作潜力较大的城市探索互利共赢的交流模式;深圳应积极探寻与其他地区供求互补产业之间的合作可能性;调动具有较高经济合作潜力但不存在双向因果关系或任何经济发展联系的城市组合,探索适合彼此经济发展的合作途径;积极推进粤港澳大湾区建设,加强珠三角资源配置范围,积极探索与香港、澳门合作机会,实现湾区内产业互动发展。

To study the degree and changes of economic links among urban areas in the Pearl River Delta in the background of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and explore the roles of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the two major central cities, in the development of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, this paper selects the relevant economic data of the nine major cities in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2016, on one hand, using KLD divergence from the three aspects of GDP, labor and capital to measure the degree of economic integration of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration;on other hand, combining gravity model, ADF unit root test, the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality analysis method to provide an empirical analysis of the economic correlation between the economies within the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. The results show that: First, the degree of economic integration of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration shows a two-stage development characteristics, which gradually strengthened before 2013, but then continued to weaken. Second, the degree of labor and capital integration is much higher than GDP integration. The degree of economic development imbalance has a great impact on the degree of economic integration of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration. Third, the siphon effect of Guangzhou’s economic development is obvious, Shenzhen’s economic development is more independent, and the two major central cities need to be strengthened to drive the economic development of other economies within the urban agglomeration. Furthermore, this paper puts forward four suggestions. Firstly, Guangzhou should continue to give full play to the advantages of service and education industry, and actively seek for a mutually beneficial and win-win communication model between cities with greater potential for economic cooperation. Secondly, Shenzhen should actively explore the possibility of cooperation with other areas of complementary supply and demand industries. Thirdly, to mobilize urban portfolios with high economic potential but no two-way causality or any economic development link, and explore ways of cooperation suitable for each other’s economic development. Fourthly, to actively promote the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, strengthen the scope of resource allocation in the Pearl River Delta, actively explore opportunities for cooperation with Hong Kong and Macao, and realize the interactive development of industry in the Bay Area.