收入分配与经济增长关系的SEM分析

SEM Analysis of the Relationship Between Income Distribution and Economic Growth

目的:为了研究收入分配不均衡对于经济增长的影响,构建了包含1个潜在变量和4个观测变量的SEM(Structural Equation Model)模型.方法:在这个模型中,社会不稳定这个潜在变量,通过一般治安案件案发率和严重刑事案件案发率2个外在观测变量进行观测.收入分配不均衡对于经济增长的影响,要以社会不稳定这一潜在变量为媒介.结果:根据《中国统计年鉴2018》中的相关数据展开实证研究,得出严重刑事案件造成的社会影响更大,更容易引起社会恐慌等不安定局面的出现;收入分配不均衡导致的贫富差距拉大,会导致一定程度的社会不稳定,进而形成对经济增长的负面影响.其中,收入分配不均衡对于社会不稳定的影响程度为0.26,社会不稳定对于经济增长的影响程度为-0.73.结论:收入分配不均衡,确实在一定程度上导致了经济发展滞后和社会不稳定.

A SEM model with one potential variable and four observation variables is constructed to study the relationship between income distribution imbalance and economic growth.In this model,the potential variable of social instability is observed through two external observational variables:the incidence of general public security cases and the incidence of serious criminal cases.The impact of uneven income distribution on economic growth should be mediated by the potential variable of social instability.Empirical research based on the relevant data in China Statistical Yearbook 2018 shows that serious criminal cases have greater social impact and are more likely to cause social panic and other unstable situations;the widening gap between the rich and the poor caused by uneven income distribution will lead to a certain degree of social instability,thus forming a negative impact on economic growth.Among them,the impact of uneven income distribution on social instability is 0.26,and the impact of social instability on economic growth is-0.73.