一种预测水驱油田开发指标的改进型增长曲线

An Improved Growth Curve for Predicting Development Indexes in Water Flooding Oilfield

3Y4增长曲线是一种预测油田产量和可采储量的数学模型,但其预测精度较低,预测效果较差。基于油田开发时间与累计产量之间的关系特征,在该模型基础上提出了一种预测油田产量和可采储量的改进型增长曲线,其涵盖了多种增长曲线且具有一定的广义性。结合矿场实例应用表明,改进型增长曲线在油田开发指标预测中应用效果较好,预测精度较高,具有较好的适用性和实用性,可用于预测油田产量、可采储量和含水率。改进型增长曲线的提出是对已有水驱油田开发指标预测方法的有效补充。

The 3Y4 growth curve is a mathematical model for predicting production and recoverable reserves of oilfields,but its prediction accuracy is relatively low and the prediction effect is relatively poor.Based on this model and the relationship between oilfield development time and cumulative production,an improved growth curve for predicting oilfield production and recoverable reserves is proposed,which covers a variety of growth curves and has certain generality.The actual application results of the improved model show that the improved growth curve has better application effect in the prediction of oilfield development index with higher prediction accuracy and better applica bility and practicability,and can be used to predict oilfield production,recoverable reserves and water cut.The introduction of the im proved growth curve is an effective supplementary to the existing methods for development index prediction in water flooding oilfields.