塔里木河流域近50年气象要素变化研究

Study on the Change of Meteorological Elements in Tarim River Basin in Recent 50 Years

为了给研究及预测塔里木河流域的气候变化和径流演变提供基础,利用塔里木河流域25个气象站1965年~2015年的气象要素资料,采用传统的Mann-Kendall方法对气象要素进行趋势分析,首次将滑动平均差检验法应用于气象要素突变分析,方法通过了理想模型检验,结果准确可靠。近50年来,塔里木河流域气象要素数据分散,年均气温普遍上升,年均风速普遍下降,年均降水普遍上升但不显著;相对湿度、日照时数和蒸发存在地区性差异;各要素突变情况复杂,主要集中在20世纪80年代。

In order to provide a basis for the study and prediction of climate change and runoff evolution in Tarim River Basin,the traditional Mann-Kendall method is used to analyze the trend of meteorological elements based on the data of meteorological elements from 25 meteorological stations in Tarim River Basin from 1965 to 2015,and for the first time,the moving average difference test method is applied to the catastrophe analysis of meteorological elements.The above methods have passed the ideal model test,and the results are accurate and reliable.In past 50 years,the data of meteorological elements in Tarim River Basin are scattered,the average annual temperature is generally risen,the average annual wind speed is generally decreased,and the average annual precipitation is generally increased but not significantly.There are regional differences in relative humidity,sunshine hours and evaporation.The mutation of each meteorological element is complex,and mainly concentrated in 1980s.