农产品安全网络舆情演化分析与导控策略

The Evolution and Guidance Strategies for the Online Public Opinion of Agricultural Products

农产品安全事件的网络舆情是关乎民众健康和社会安定的重大问题。采用改进的元胞自动机模型分析此类网络舆情的演化趋势及导控策略。通过对元胞空间邻域结构、状态转移函数及演化规则的改进体现农产品网络舆情特点,引入导控因子分析舆情导控策略,并通过仿真实验探究网民情感倾向、相互作用以及信息干预对舆情演化趋势的影响。最后对中国近期发生的“非洲猪瘟”事件相关舆情进行实证分析。研究表明:本文模型实现了对该事件网民情感倾向变化及舆情发展的合理预测,并提出科学的舆情干预和监管措施。研究将有助于揭示农产品安全网络舆情特征与演化规律,为网络舆情的有效监管提供参考。

Online public opinion about agricultural product safety is a major issue related to pubic health and social stability.An improved cellular automata model was proposed to analyze the evolution and guidance strategies of this issue.According to the characteristics of agro-product public opinion,the cellular spatial neighborhood structures,the transfer function and evolution rules were improved.Furthermore,a regulation coefficient was proposed in the model which can reflect the effects of guidance strategies.Then,a series of simulation experiments were implemented to analyze the evolution and developing trend of these online public opinion.Finally,empirical analysis showed the online public opinion of“African swine fever”event in China.Results verify the effectiveness and reliability of the model.The research is helpful to reveal the evolution laws of agro-product public opinion,and provide reference for the effective supervision of this issue.