人口流动、信息传播效率与疫情防控——基于新型冠状肺炎(COVID-19)的证据

Population Movement,Information Dissemination Efficiency and Disease Control:Evidence from Coronavirus Disease 2019

2019年12月以来,新冠肺炎疫情快速蔓延,防控压力激增。通过百度迁徙的人口流动数据,本文研究了人口流动对疫情扩散的影响,以及信息传播效率在疫情防控中的作用。研究发现,人口流动加速了疫情传播,人口流动每增加一个标准差,确诊人数将增加12.8%个标准差;更高的信息传播效率有效降低了人口流动对疫情传播的影响。进一步研究发现,信息传播效率对疫情防控的影响具有较长的持续性。同时,SARS经历不深的地区居民防治素养较弱,信息传播效率提高居民防治素养的作用更强,有利于疫情防控。本文的政策建议在于,面对突发疫情时政府相关部门应当及时准确披露信息,引起公众重视,提高疫情防控效果。

Since December 2019,the Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a rapid infectious disease.The pressure on disease in prevention and control increased.Using the data of population movement from Baidu,we empirically test how population movement affects the epidemic of disease and how information dissemination efficiency helps to control the disease.Results show that population movement fastens the epidemic of disease.A rise of one standard deviation in population movement will lead to a rise of 12.8%standard deviation in diagnosis population.Higher efficiency of information dissemination can help to control the disease.Further research shows that information dissemination efficiency has a long-lasting effect on disease control.Meanwhile,in the provinces with lighter SARS experience,information dissemination efficiency has greater effect on disease control.We suggest that government should announce the information on disease actively and immediately to improve the epidemetic prevention and control effect.