南宁市登革热流行风险评估

Risk assessment of dengue epidemic in Nanning

目的探讨南宁市登革热流行风险评估方法,为及时采取有效应对策略提供依据。方法采用专家咨询法对登革热流行的可能性及后果的严重性进行分析,应用风险矩阵法评价登革热流行风险水平。结果两次专家咨询的专家积极系数均为100.00%,权威系数分别是(0.900±0.173)和(0.840±0.251)。构建了包含4个一级指标和17个二级指标的登革热流行可能性指标,以及7个登革热流行后果影响指标,确定当前南宁市登革热流行的风险水平为中等风险,南宁市防控登革热的薄弱点为传染源和蚊媒控制。结论综合应用专家咨询法和风险矩阵法是评估登革热流行风险的有效方法,具有推广应用价值。

Objective To discuss risk assessments of dengue epidemic in Nanning,and to provide scientific basis for preventive strategies.Methods Expert consultation was held to evaluate the possibility and the consequence severity of dengue epidemic in Nanning.And the risk matrix method was employed to assess risk levels.Results In the two expert consultations.the positive coefficient was both 100.00%and the average authority coefficient was(0.900±0.173)and(0.840±0.251),respectively.The evaluation index system of dengue epidemic was built,including the possibility risk indicators with 4 first-level indexes and 17 second-level indexes,and 7 consequence severity indexes.And it determined that there was moderate risk of dengue epidemic in Nanning.The weaknesses of prevention and control about dengue epidemic were the sources of infection and control of mosquito vector.Conclusion The integrated application of expert consultation and risk matrix method was effective on evaluating the risk levels of dengue epidemic,and therefore it was worthy of wide promotion.