哈尔滨市水资源开发利用与城镇化发展的响应关系

Response Relationship Between Water Resources Utilization and Urbanization in Harbin City

[目的]研究水资源系统和城镇化系统的相互作用,为资源开发与城镇化协调发展提供理论依据.[方法]运用层次分析法、因子分析法和响应度模型对2006-2017年哈尔滨市水资源开发利用和城镇化发展的影响因素、时序特征、响应关系进行定量研究.[结果]①研究期内哈尔滨市水资源开发利用和城镇化发展均呈阶段性增长趋势.二者均以2011年前后为时间节点,表现出前期波动、后期趋稳的阶段性特征.②城镇化系统中经济、空间和社会城镇化的上升发展较为同步.人口城镇化起伏较大,有衰退的潜在风险.城市水资源开发利用程度加深,管理水平提升,但资源赋存不稳定,城市用水负荷增加.③响应关系测算比较中,城镇化发展对水资源的变动具有更强的敏感性,经济集聚和空间扩张产生了明显的资源消耗效应,水资源开发利用程度对城镇化发展有制约作用.[结论]需要运用系统性思维,以水资源时空分布为基础,保持城镇化适度发展,合理抑制用水需求并提升水务管理能力,以减轻水资源约束.

[Objective]The interaction between water resources systems and urbanization systems was studied in order to provide a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of resource exploitation and urbanization.[Methods]Analytic hierarchy processes,factor analysis,and a response model were used to quantitatively study the influencing factors,spatio-temporal characteristics,and response relationship of water resources utilization and urbanization development respectively,in Harbin City from 2006 to 2017.[Results]①The development and utilization of water resources and urbanization in Harbin City increased in stages.Both stages had 2011 as the node time,showing the stage characteristics of early fluctuation and later stabilization.②The three subsystems of economy,space,and society,in the urbanization system rose and developed synchronously.The subsystem of population urbanization fluctuated greatly and risked systematic recession.In the water resources system,the utilization degree was deepened,and the management level was improved,however the resources were unstable and the urban water consumption load increased.③In the calculation of the response relationship,urbanization development was more sensitive to the change of water resources,economic agglomeration,and spatial expansion that produced an obvious resource consumption effect.The development and utilization of water resources had a restrictive effect on the development of urbanization.[Conclusion]Systematic thinking should be used to maintain the moderate development of urbanization based on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources,rationally restraining the demand for water use and enhancing the management ability will help reduce the water constraints.