普惠金融、金融深化与金融稳定--基于ARDL-ECM模型估计

Inclusive Finance, Financial Deepening And Financial Stability--Based on ARDL-ECM Model Estimation

本文利用中国1988~2016年宏观经济数据、金融数据,分别构建金融压力指数与普惠金融发展指数来反映我国的金融稳定状况和普惠金融发展状况,并利用ARDL-ECM模型来分析金融压力指数、普惠金融发展水平、金融深化水平之间的关系。实证结果表明我国普惠金融的发展虽然短期会加大系统性金融风险,但是长期来看是有利于金融稳定的。并且对于我国来说金融深化短期内有利于缓解系统性金融风险,但是长期不利于金融稳定。同时,长期内金融深化可以加大普惠金融对金融稳定的有利影响,但是短期却会加大普惠金融不利于金融稳定的作用。

This paper uses China’s 1988-2016 macroeconomic data and financial data to construct a financial stress index and an inclusive financial development index to reflect China’s financial stability and inclusive financial development, and use the ARDL-ECM model to analyze the relationship during stress index, inclusive financial development level, and financial deepening level. The empirical results show that although the development of inclusive finance in China will increase systemic financial risks in the short term, it is conducive to financial stability in the long run. And for China, financial deepening will help alleviate systemic financial risks in the short term, but it is not conducive to financial stability in the long run. At the same time, financial deepening in the long run can increase the favorable impact of inclusive finance on financial stability, but in the short term it will increase the role of inclusive finance against financial stability.