中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析

Regional Economic Resilience and Influential Mechanism During Economic Crises in China

从经济维持性和恢复性2个方面定量化分析中国31省(市)(未包含港澳台数据)应对1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的经济韧性特征,并对其主要影响因素进行了研究。结果发现:①在亚洲金融危机中,西部地区的经济维持性较高,中部地区的经济维持性普遍较低;经济恢复性较高的省市主要集中在中部地区,而东部和西部地区经济恢复性较低,经济维持性和经济恢复性呈现一定的负相关。②各省(市)应对全球金融危机的经济维持性普遍较高,经济维持性较低的区域主要分在东部沿海区域和沿长江经济带地区,而经济维持性较高的区域主要集中在西部地区。③在亚洲金融危机中,第二产业表现出了较强的经济韧性,而在全球金融危机中第三产业经济韧性较好。④影响2次经济危机中韧性能力的主要因素是不同的,区位条件、人均固定资产投资额和人均GDP的解释力较强,但在2次经济周期中的作用方向不同。

This article quantitatively analyzes the economic resilience of 31 provinces of China in terms of resistance and recoverability during two economic crises: the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, it analyzes the main factors that affected regional resilience. There are three main findings. Firstly, in the first economic cycle, the economic resistance in western region was relatively high, and the central region was low;the provinces with high economic recoverability were mainly concentrated in the central region, while those in the eastern and western regions were lower, with economic resistance and recoverability showing a certain negative correlation. All regions in second economic cycle demonstrated well resistance;those with low economic resistance were mainly located in the eastern coastal areas and along the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Thirdly, the secondary industry was stronger than the tertiary industry in terms of economic resilience during the first economic cycle, while the situation was different in the second economic cycle. Finally, the influential factors affecting economic resilience varied across the two economic cycles;location advantage, per capita fixed asset investment and per capita GDP had strong explanatory power on economic resilience, but the direction of action in the two economic cycles was different.