黄土高原地区乡村性空间特征及其与可达性格局关系

The Spatial Characteristics of Rurality and Its Relationship with the Transportation Accessibility in the Loess Plateau

在乡村转型重构的关键时期以及城乡融合背景下,可达性作为驱动乡村地域特征改变的直接媒介,对乡村减贫及可持续发展产生重要影响。以县域为基本空间单元,构建了刻画乡村性和可达性的指标体系,定量测度了1990年、2000年、2010年、2015年黄土高原地区243个县域乡村性与可达性指数,探索黄土高原地区县域乡村性和可达性的时空演变特征,采用探索性空间数据方法,引入空间计量经济模型,对乡村性与可达性的集聚特征及关系进行计量分析。结果显示:①研究区乡村性整体呈减弱态势、差异不断增大,呈现"西高东低"分布格局;可达性整体呈增强趋势、差异不断缩小,"东高西低"的分布格局基本不变。②乡村性与可达性空间分布均呈较强的正空间自相关,以"榆林-庆阳"一线为界分布,但集聚态势总体不断减弱;其次,可达性的提升对乡村性呈负向影响且波动增强,低可达性-高乡村性类型主要分布在西北的青海、甘肃、宁夏境内,高可达性-低乡村性类型主要分布在东部经济发展水平较高的地级市周边县市。③乡村性的空间溢出效应显著,表现出显著的空间滞后和空间误差溢出效应,区域乡村性会受到周边地区乡村性的显著影响;可达性的提升会使得乡村人口变化率、一产产值比重降低;使农业劳动生产率、农村人均纯收入、农业土地生产率提高,且可达性对农业土地生产率的影响最大,而对农村居民人均纯收入的影响提升最大。

In the context of rural transformation and reconstruction and urban-rural integration, production factors such as population, land and capital, continue to flow between urban and rural areas, so rural areas have happened great changes. Accessibility, as the direct medium to drive the change of rural characteristics, has an important impact on rural poverty alleviation and sustainable development. Taking the counties as the basic spatial unit, we examine the spatio-temporal dynamic of rurality and potential accessibility in the Loess Plateau by evaluating the rurality and potential accessibility indexes quantitatively of the 243 counties in the years of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015. At the same time, this article analyzes the geographical concentration and the correlation of the rurality and potential accessibility of the Loess Plateau by using the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric model. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Rurality indexes of the counties in the Loess Plateau tend to decline, but the difference among 243 counties becomes wider, and the distribution pattern of rurality index presents the pattern of"high in the west and low in the east";the potential accessibility in Loess Plateau tends to enhanced, but the difference among 243 counties becomes shrinking, and the distribution pattern of potential accessibility-"high in the east and low in the west"-is basically unchanged from 1990 to 2015. 2) The spatial distribution of rurality and accessibility has a strong positive spatial autocorrelation respectively, but the spatial aggregation tends to weaken from 1990 to 2015, and distributes along the line of"Yulin-Qingyang". Moreover, the rurality’s high-high agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in Liupan Mountainous Area and Luliang Mountainous Area, while the potential accessibility agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in Guanzhong plain, Henan and Shanxi, and gradually extend to Inner Mongolia. What’s more, the increase in accessibility has a negative effect on rurality and this effect becomes enhanced volatility, which verifies the hypothesis that areas with high accessibility is always with weaker rurality, meanwhile, the low accessibility-high rurality types are mainly distributed in Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia,the high accessibility-low rurality types are mainly distributed in the northeast with a higher economic development. 3) The rurality shows significantly spatial spillover effect, that is significant spatial lag and spatial error spillover effect, which means the rural development in the region will be affected by the surrounding rural area. The improvement of potential accessibility will make the rural population change rate and the primary industry rate decline, while make the agricultural labor productivity, rural per capita net income, and agricultural land productivity increase. What’s more, the accessibility has the greatest impact on agricultural land productivity from 1990 to 2015, but the impact on rural residents’ per capita net income enhanced most.