大型输水工程的生态效益与社会经济效益评价--以塔里木河下游为例

Evaluation of Ecological and Social-economic Benefits of Large Water Conveyance Projects: A Case Study on the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River

基于塔里木河下游2000年、2010年、2016年3期的遥感资料,对区域内的土地类型进行分类,评估整个区域的生态系统服务价值变化特征,并应用主成分分析法等估算区域的社会经济评价分值。结果表明:①自生态输水以来,塔里木河下游地区的未利用地面积变化不大,水域面积增加最显著,耕地和建筑用地面积有所增加,林地和草地的面积有所减少。②2000~2016年,塔里木河下游生态系统各项服务功能价值有所增加,其中以提供美学景观价值和气体调节的价值增加最大,增加率分别为318.35%,312.94%;生态系统服务总价值增加率约为69.57%。③影响塔里木河下游经济发展的因素可以概括为经济地理因素与农业发展水平。

There are many problems of ecology and environment in arid area, and the ecological vulnerability is one of the focuses in arid regions. As a result, ecological protection and environmental management in arid regions have always been a hot topic of global concerns. The Tarim River Basin, which is very vulnerable, is located in the inland arid regions of Northwest China. Before the implementation of ecological water transport,due to the impacts of natural environmental changes and intensified human activities, the vegetation in the region was seriously damaged, desertification was gradually intensified, and economic developments was seriously hindered. Therefore, the ecological and environmental problems of the Tarim River Basin have been attracted great attentions of the state. In 2000, the Chinese government invested 10.7 billion yuan to carry out ecological control projects in the Tarim River Basin, and to implement ecological water conveyance in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. From 2000 to 2016, 17 times ecological water transfers have been carried out in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Studying whether the ecological water conveyance projects in the lower reaches of the Tarim River could improve the ecological environment and promote local economic development, and how to quantify the changes of ecological environment and economic development, and how to analyze the characteristics of the relationships between water conveyance and the changes of ecological environment and economic development, are the important basis for the scientific and sustainable implementation of ecological water conveyance, and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional economy. It is of great significance. Based on the remote sensing data of 2000, 2010 and 2016 in the lower reaches of Tarim River, land types in the region were classified and changing characteristics of ecosystem service value in the region were assessed;Then, Principal Component Analysis was applied to estimate the evaluation scores of regional socio-economic. The results are as follows: 1) Since the beginning of ecological water conveyance,the area of unused land in the lower reaches of the Tarim River has not changed much, and it has always accounted for more than 70% of the total area of the region;The water area increased most significantly, and the area of farmland and construction land has also increased, but the area of woodland and grassland decreased.2) From 2000 to 2016, the value of each service function of ecosystem has increased, and the value of provide aesthetic landscape and gas regulation increased greatly, which were 318.35% and 312.94% respectively;What’s more, the total value of ecosystem services increased by about 69.57%. 3) The factors that affect the economic development of lower reaches of the Tarim River were economic geography factors and agricultural development level;From 2000 to 2016, social economic scores in the lower reaches of the Tarim River increased, that shows the social-economic benefits of ecological water conveyance were very significant, and there was a positive correlation between social and economic benefits and ecological water conveyance. As a result, the ecological water conveyance project should be continued with reasonable control and management measures in order to promote the local ecological restoration and sustainable economic development.