基于Crystal Ball与CPM/PERT的某管片厂项目建设工期风险分析

Risk Analysis of Construction Period of a Segment Plant Project Based on Crystal Ball and CPM/PERT

关键路径法(CPM)与计划评审技术(PERT)被广泛应用于活动与工序较多的工程项目建设中,但受限于工程项目实施中的各种不确定性,因此在具体的应用中受到了一定的限制。文章以中铁某局管片厂施工项目为例,通过Crystal Ball软件建立该项目工期风险分析模型,并结合传统CPM与PERT方法,对项目建设与工期进行蒙特卡洛仿真分析。结果表明工程项目中一些关键工序路径对整个项目的顺利进行有着重要影响。

CPM and PERT are widely used in engineering projects with more activities and processes,but limited by various uncertainties in the implementation of the project,therefore,it is limited in specific application.In this paper,the construction project of a segment factory of China Railway Bureau is taken as an example,establishing the project duration risk analysis model through crystal ball software,combined with traditional CPM and PERT,Monte Carlo simulation analysis of project construction and construction period.The results show that some key paths in the project have an important impact on the smooth progress of the whole project.