美国选民身份识别法对选举参与的影响--基于2016年美国大选的分析

The Impact of Voter Identification Laws on Electoral Participation: An Analysis Based on the 2016 US Election

选民身份识别法是近年来美国两党在选民争夺战上的焦点议题。截止2016年大选之前,美国已有30多个州实施了不同类型的选民身份识别法。文章采用2016年美国大选期间各州的投票数据,运用多层级线性回归模型,探索选民身份识别法与选举投票率的关系,分析选民身份识别法对投票参与行为的影响效应。研究发现,选民身份识别法客观上成为了普通公民选举参与的准入性障碍,各州之间随着选民身份识别的严格程度加强,公民选举参与程度逐步降低。选民身份识别法主要按照种族和党派的界线分化了美国选民。文章最后指出,选民身份识别法是共和党削弱民主党选举力量的政治武器,也是共和党稳固选区优势的重要法宝,围绕选民身份识别法而展开的党派竞争加剧了两党的极化和对立。

Voter ID laws have become hot issues of the two US parties in the election campaign in recent years. As of the 2016 election, more than 30 states have enacted some form of voter ID requirement. By using voting data from two validated data sets, we use the hierarchical linear regression mode to explore the relationship between voter ID laws and election turnout, and to analyze the mechanism of voter ID laws affecting political voting behavior. An empirical result is that voter ID laws have become access barriers objectively for the political participation of ordinary citizens, especially for American minorities, and the turnout has decreased as voter ID laws have become stricter. The implementation of voter ID laws has shaped the voting mode of American voters in accordance with boundaries of race and partisanship. The article concludes that voter ID laws are political weapons for the Republican Party to weaken the Democratic Party in elections, and are also important magic weapons for the Republican Party to consolidate its advantages in constituency. The party competition around the voter ID laws has intensified the political polarization and opposition.