无失效数据场合指数分布可靠度的Bayes估计

Bayesian Estimation of Exponential Distribution Reliability in the Case of Zero-Failure Data

在无失效场数据场合下,Bayes估计是对失效概率和可靠度进行估计的最常用方法,指数分布是可靠性统计研究中最常用的一种分布形式。本文讨论了寿命服从指数分布的无失效数据。首先给出可靠度的先验分布,进而根据指数分布的凸性和无记忆性,在无失效数据场合下研究了失效概率以及可靠度的Bayes估计。最后进行了算例分析,验证了本文提出方法的可行性。

of zero-failure data,Bayesian estimation is the most commonly used method for the estimation of failure probability and reliability.In the research of reliability statistics,exponential distribution is the most frequently used distribution form.In this paper,zero-failure data of exponential distribution is discussed.Firstly,the prior distribution of reliability is given.Then,Bayesian estimation of failure rate and reliability in the case of zero-failure data is analyzed in accordance with the convexity and non-memory property of exponential distribution.Finally,a case study is presented to verify the feasibility of the proposed method.