疫情冲击下增长路径偏移与支持政策——基于对企业非均衡冲击的分析

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Growth Path of Chinese Economy and the Policy Response——An Analysis Based on the Unbalanced Impact on Enterprises

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情不论是在各区域的传播,还是对各行业和企业的影响都呈现出明显的差异,因此,其扩散与冲击存在显著的不均衡性。但从各地复工情况看,尽管政府出台了不少支持性政策,但复工仍被整体性推后,很难实现差别复工,这一方面凸显出经济活动的系统性特征,另一方面也表明经济与社会存在高度互动制衡机制。本文依据中小企业复工数据与宏观总量数据进行了估测性对接,讨论了复工时间延后对中国经济增长路径偏移的可能影响,同时基于微观企业调查数据,分析了疫情冲击下企业所受影响的差异性,尝试探索中国面对疫情冲击时的企业与政府政策互动,从而更好把握疫情冲击所造成的经济增长路径偏移,并给出了相应的提升政策效率的建议。

The COVID-19 epidemic spread differently in various regions of China and has different impacts on various industries and enterprises.Therefore,there is a significant imbalance of its spread and impact.However,from the perspective of enterprise resumption,in spite of supportive government policies,the resumption is still lagging behind as a whole.It not only shows that modern economic activities have systematic characteristics,but that the economy and society have a highly interactive balance mechanism.Based on the small and medium-sized enterprises survey data and macroeconomic data,this paper estimates the loss of working days and the deviation from the normal economic growth path due to the slow resumption of enterprises,examines the heterogeneous impacts on enterprises of COVID-19,and discusses the interaction of enterprises and government policies in the face of COVID-19.Finally,the paper gives some suggestions to improve the efficiency of policies.