COC磋商背景下的英国南海情报体制研究

The UK's Intelligence System of SCS under the Background of COC Negotiations

[目的/意义]历史上,英国染指南海极深。在《南海行为准则》(COC)磋商阶段,决意脱欧的英国依托其帝国精神遗产和海外合作框架,意欲卷入区域事务而强化其全球作用,寻求利益支点。分析英国的南海情报体制,有助于预判英国在该地带的外交和军事动向。[方法/过程]其体制是由不同性质和范围的跨域情报网络组成,采用结构功能分析法和开源情报,可初步研判英国与域内其它声索国、域外大国之间的情报关系,尝试构建英涉南海的“B-F2-JV”情报体制。[结果/结论]渐进发展中的英国南海情报体制,为域外大国“航行自由”和“飞越自由”提供了情报保障,也影响到中国与域内国家的COC磋商。应从情报竞争、区域合作和军事先制等方面,削其功力。

[Purpose/Significance]Long have the British intervened SCS in history.During the negotiations phase of the COC,the UK,which is determined to leave the EU,relying on its imperial spiritual heritage and overseas cooperation,intends to be involved in regional affairs to strengthen its global role and seek for the interests.An analysis of the UK's intelligence system in SCS will help predict UK's diplomatic and military trends in the area.[Method/Process]The system consists of cross-domain intelligence networks of different natures and scopes.Using the method of structural functional analysis and open source intelligence,it is possible to initially judge the intelligence relationship between the UK and other countries,and to try to build the UK's"B-F2-JV"intelligence system involved in the SCS.[Result/Conclusion]The gradual development of the UK's intelligence system of SCS provides information guide for the"freedom of navigation"and"freedom of flying"of countries outside this region,and also affects COC negotiations between China and other countries in this region.To cut the function of intelligence system,strategies should be carried out on the aspects of intelligence competition,regional cooperation and military pressure.