移动社交网络次生舆情的动态预警方法研究

Research on Dynamic Early Warning Method of Secondary Public Opinion in Mobile Social Network

[目的/意义]针对当前网络舆情预警方法民众满意度低、预警效果差的问题,提出基于系统动力学模型和三角模糊数的移动社交网络次生舆情动态预警方法。[方法/过程]通过网络舆情主题爬虫爬取网络次生舆情数据,以此为依据,利用移动用户、网站、媒体、政府4个子系统分析网络次生舆情的因果关系;根据次生舆情因果关系的梳理与分析,通过三角模糊数和舆情数据的处理规则对所统计的数据实施去模糊化与均值化操作,同时识别变量三角模糊数的评语值,根据模糊综合评价方法对评语值进行加权处理。将舆情预警警度划分成正常、轻度、中度、重度、特重5个等级,并设定警戒线,根据评语值对应的警戒线范围,采用相应预警措施实现网络次生舆情的动态预警。[结果/结论]实验结果表明,所提舆情预警方法的民众满意度高、可有效控制民意沸腾度,且预警准确度较高。

[Purpose/Significance]Aiming at the problems of low public satisfaction and poor early warning effect of current online public opinion warning methods,a dynamic early warning method based on system dynamics model and triangular fuzzy number for mobile social network secondary public opinion was proposed.[Method/Process]By crawling the data of online secondary public opinion through the theme of online public opinion,this paper analyzes the causal relationship of online secondary public opinion by using the four subsystems of mobile users,websites,media and government.According to the carding and analysis of the causal relationship of secondary public opinions,the author carried out the operation of de-fuzzing and averaging the statistical data through the triangle fuzzy number and the processing rules of public opinion data,and identified the evaluation value of the variable triangle fuzzy number,and weighted the evaluation value according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Public opinion warning degree is divided into five levels:normal,mild,moderate,severe and heavy,and warning line is set.According to the warning line range corresponding to the evaluation value,corresponding warning measures are adopted to realize the dynamic warning of secondary public opinion on the network.[Result/Conclusion]The experimental results show that the proposed public opinion warning method has high public satisfaction,can effectively control the boiling degree of public opinion,and has high warning accuracy.