公共风险事件中网民风险感知的时空分布:来自H7N9的实证经验

Study on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Internet Users'Risk Perception in Public Risk Events:Empirical Experience from H7N9

[目的/意义]网络时代背景下,网民通过网络传播感知风险具有普遍性。在网民获取风险信息由传统渠道向现代渠道转变的过程中,政府及时、充分地把握网民的风险感知水平及其影响因素,对于有效实现公共风险事件的风险预控和治理具有至关重要的作用。[方法/过程]以网络搜索量作为反映网民在公共风险事件中风险感知水平的指标,以2013-2018年期间爆发的6次重大H7N9禽流感网络风险事件为例,采用百度指数搜索获取数据,建立面板数据的固定混合效应模型,进行风险感知影响因素相关性分析,并从时间、空间和时空交互影响三个维度,实证分析了公共风险事件中网民风险感知的时空分布演化特征。[结果/结论]结果显示,H7N9事件中网民风险感知受到经济、教育、健康水平和信息公开程度的影响,其演变过程具有时间周期性与空间均匀性等特征,在时空交互影响下网民信息需求结构、搜索热点更趋理性与稳定。

[Purpose/Significance]In the Internet age,it is common for netizens to spread perceived risks through the Internet.In the process of the transformation from traditional channels to modern channels for netizens to obtain risk information,the timely and full grasp of the risk perception level of netizens and their influencing factors and influencing mechanism by the government plays a crucial role in the effective risk precontrol and governance of public risk events.[Method/Process]Using the network search volume as an indicator of the netizens'level of risk perception in a public risk event,using Baidu index search to get the data of the outbreak of the six major H7N9 avian influenza network risk events,including those happened in 2013-2018,the research establishes a panel data fixed mixed-effect model,conducts a correlation analysis of the risk perception influencing factors,and carries out an empirical analysis from the three dimensions of time,space,and time-space interaction.The research empirically analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of netizens'risk perception in public risk events.[Result/Conclusion]The results show that the netizens'risk perception in the H7N9 event is affected by economic,educational,health,and information disclosure levels.And the evolution process has characteristics such as time periodicity and spatial uniformity.Under the influence of time-space interaction,the information demand structure and search hotspots of netizens are more rational and stable.