中等收入陷阱的产业逻辑:从平面发展到垂直发展

Industrial Logic of Middle-Income Trap: From Plane Development to Vertical Development

产业发展从不发达状态到发达状态存在固有逻辑。在发展初期,产业发展以平面化扩张为主,技术进步缓慢;在平面发展达到临界状态时,经济增长会出现暂时性停滞,产业需要向垂直发展阶段演进。中等收入陷阱的出现与两阶段的产业演化逻辑密切相关,其中关键原因在于,产权体系的不完善使转型期的经济停滞演变为一种相对稳定的均衡状态。在跨越中等收入陷阱过程中,大国与小国存在明显差异。当前,我国存在跌入中等收入陷阱的风险,需要充分发挥大国优势,顺利跨越中等收入陷阱。

There is an inherent logic in industrial development from underdeveloped state to developed state.In the early stage,the industrial development is mainly flat expansion,and the technological progress is slow.When the flat development reaches the critical state,the economic growth appears temporary stagnation,and the industry needs to evolve to the vertical development stage.The emergence of the middle-income trap is closely related to the two-stage industrial evolution logic.In the process of crossing the middle-income trap,there are obvious differences between big and small countries.At present,there is a risk for China to fall into the middle-income trap,and China needs to make full use of the big country advantage to smoothly cross the middle-income trap.