山东省水生态足迹时空分布与驱动效应研究

Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Driving Effects of Water Ecological Footprint in Shandong Province

利用改进的水生态足迹模型计算了山东省2007—2016年的水生态足迹和水生态承载力,分析评价了近年来山东省水生态足迹的动态变化与空间分布情况,并基于LMDI构建的水资源生态足迹分解模型分析了经济、结构、技术与人口效应的驱动效果,结果表明:2007—2016年山东省人均水资源生态赤字呈波动上升趋势,水环境生态赤字2010年前后差异明显,2010年后赤字值激增;2016年各市的人均水环境生态赤字均大于水资源生态赤字;经济、结构与人口效应对山东省水资源生态足迹的增长起正向驱动作用,技术效应则起抑制作用。

This paper used the improved water ecological footprint model to calculate the water ecological footprint and water ecological sur plus/deficit of Shandong Province from 2007 to 2016,and analyzed the dynamic and spatial distribution of water ecological footprint in Shan dong Province in recent years,then used LMDI to construct a water ecological footprint decomposition model to analyze the driving effects of economy,structure,technology and population effects.The results show that the ecological deficit of per capita water resources in Shandong Province show a volatility trend from 2007 to 2016,the difference between the water environment and ecological deficit is obvious around 2010 and the deficit value has been increased sharply after 2010.Besides,the per capita water environment deficit of each city in 2016 is greater than that the water deficit and the results of water resources ecological footprint decomposition show that the economic,structural and population effects positively promote the growth of water resources ecological footprint in Shandong Province,then the technical effect corre spondingly negatively inhibits.