多重视角下中国省域科技产出的影响因素研究

The influencing factors of China′s provincial science andtechnology outputs from multiple perspectives

基于区域经济发展、科技人力资源投入、科技财务资源投入、科技物资资源投入和科技环境等多重视角,以2012—2016年中国31个省、市、自治区(香港、澳门、台湾地区除外)科技产出为被解释变量,以滞后1期的科技产出影响因素为解释变量,运用最大信息系数和随机森林回归进行分析。研究结果表明:我国科技产出总体呈上升趋势,但各区域的差异不断扩大;科技产出与部分影响因素之间存在较强的非线性关系;科技产出主要受仪器和设备经费、R&D经费支出用途、R&D人员和工作量、高技术产品进口贸易额等因素的影响,受其他变量影响较小。据此,建议加强科技资源优化配置,重视科技人才的引进和培养,不断提升自主创新能力和核心竞争力。

Based on multiple perspectives of regional economic development,human resources,financial resources and material resources inputs of science and technology(S&T)and technological environment,this paper takes the S&T outputs of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2012 to 2016 as the dependent variables,and takes the one-lag-phase influencing factors as independent variables and uses the maximum information coefficient and random forest regression to draw the conclusions.The results show that:the overall outputs of S&T in China are on the rise,but the regional differences are expanding;there is a strong non-linear relationship between the outputs of S&T and some influencing factors;the outputs of S&T are mainly affected by some factors such as instrument and equipment expenditure,R&D expenditure,R&D personnel and workload,import trade value of high-tech products.It is less affected by other variables.Therefore,China should strengthen the optimal allocation of S&T resources,attach importance to the introduction and training of S&T talents and constantly improve the ability of independent innovation and core competitiveness.