美国施压人民币汇率趋势研判

Analysis and Judgment on US Pressure on RMB Exchange Rate Trend

人民币汇率问题是中美经贸领域的重要议题,美国对人民币汇率问题关注重点经历了由汇率形成机制向汇率水平的转变。中美在这一问题上的博弈将长期存在,焦点在于中国是否存在汇率操纵。美国对人民币汇率施压或将中国列为“汇率操纵国”,将对我国部分商品国际竞争力、国际收支、金融市场稳定以及人民币国际化产生一定的潜在影响,需要通过完善汇率形成机制改革、加大国际交流、提升金融市场发展水平、加强系统重要性金融机构监管等措施,积极稳妥加以应对。

The RMB exchange rate issue is an important issue in the economic and trade field between China and the United States.The US focus on RMB exchange rate issues has undergone a transition from the exchange rate formation mechanism to the exchange rate level.The game between China and the US on this issue will be long,with the focus on whether China is manipulating its currency.The US pressure on the RMB exchange rate or list China as a"currency manipulator"will have a certain potential impact on the international competitiveness of some of our commodities,the balance of payments,the stability of the financial market,and the internationalization of the RMB.We need to perfect the exchange rate formation mechanism reform,increasing international exchanges,enhance the level of financial market development,strengthen the supervision of systemically important financial institutions,actively yet prudently to deal with them.