融合多源数据的水源保护区火险评估

Fire Risk Assessment of Water Protection Areas Based on Multi-source Data

水源涵养林对保障城市用水质量有重要作用,但目前研究水源保护区的火险评估模型较少,且相关驱动因素分析匮乏。针对上述问题,从地形、植被、气象和人为因素4个维度出发,构建水源保护区的火险评价指标体系,同时结合层次分析法定权构建火险预警模型。以深圳市铁岗-石岩水源保护为例,对该区域2015年4月、8月、10月、12月份的火险进行评估,根据评估结果分析研究区火险指数时空分布特征,并引入主成分分析模型分析水源保护区火险发生驱动因素。得出结论:①火险指数分布时空差异明显,呈现季节性变化和区域性变化。②水源保护区火险发生的主要驱动因素是离构筑物(发电站、高压电塔)距离、离道路距离、地表覆盖类型这3个因子。

Water conservation forests play an important role in ensuring urban water quality.However,there are few fire risk warning models being studied for water source protection areas,and lacking of analysis of relevant driving factors.For the above problems,with consideration of four dimensions of terrain,vegetation,meteorology and human factors,this paper constructs a fire risk assessment index system of water source protection zone and a fire risk warning model with hierarchical analysis.Taking the protection of Tiegang-Shiyan water source in Shenzhen as an example,fire risks of the region were assessed in April,August,October and December 2015.According to the results,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the fire risk index in the study area were analyzed and the driving factors of fire risk in water source protection areas were analyzed with the main component regression model.It can be concluded that:①The distribution of fire risk index shows obvious difference spatially and temporally,and revealing seasonal and regional changes.②The main driving factors of fire risk in water source protection areas are the distance from structures(power stations,high-voltage towers),and the distance from roads and types of surface cover.