连南县三江镇一次冰雹天气过程的短临预报思路分析

Analysis on Nowcasting Thought of a Hailstorm Process of Sanjiang Town in Liannan County

利用MICAPS再生图像资料、ECMWF_FINE模式与多普勒雷达探测等图像产品资料,对2016年4月17日三江镇发生的1次小范围强对流过程的天气环流背景、各物理量及多普勒雷达回波变化过程进行了短临预报思路分析。结果表明,本次强对流天气过程环流背景复杂;大量的不稳定能量集聚与适合的0℃层与-20℃层为冰雹的生长提供了有利的条件;存在下湿上干的不稳定层结与强烈的风速辐合通道加上适宜的风切变环境和地形抬升作用;雷达组合反射率与雷暴中心VIL的回波特征预示了本次冰雹的出现。

Using MICAPS regeneration image data,ECMWF_FINE mode and Doppler radar images production,this paper analyzed the nowcasting thought of small scale process of strong convective weather of Sanjiang Town in Liannan County on April 17,2016,including irculation background,various physical quantities and the Doppler radar echo change process.The results showed that the strong convective weather process had a complex circulation background;a large number of unstable energy accumulating and suitable 0 ℃ and-20 ℃ layer provided favorable conditions for the growth of hail;there were unstable stratification of wet lower layer and dry upper layer,a strong wind speed convergence channel and appropriate wind shear environment with the orographic lifting effect;radar combination alberto and the VIL echo characteristics of thunderstorms center indicated that the hail storms would occur.