县域尺度下扬子江城市群人口—经济空间格局演变研究

Evolution Process of Population-Economic Spatial Pattern of Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration at County Scale

区域发展差异是区域协调发展所面临的重要问题之一,主要体现在人口与经济两大指标上,研究二者的互动演变规律对于促进区域协调发展具有重要意义。本文基于2003~2017年扬子江城市群常住人口、人均GDP和GDP等数据,采用重心法、不均衡指数、不一致指数等研究方法,定量揭示了扬子江城市群人口—经济空间格局的动态演变过程及其可能机制。研究结果表明:①扬子江城市群的人口与经济重心均偏南,但偏移的程度和趋势并不相同;②扬子江城市群的不均衡指数在研究时段内稳步下降,表明本地区的人口—经济空间格局渐趋均衡,而不一致指数则进一步将本地区的8个城市划分为持续下降型(扬泰通)、持续上升型(苏锡)和波动型(宁常镇);③在演化经济地理学语境下,扬子江城市群人口—经济空间格局的动态演变是经济刺激与制度刺激共同作用的结果,为加速均衡格局的形成,努力提高地方政府治理体系和治理能力现代化是重要途径。

The difference of regional development is one of the important problems in the regional coordinated development of the region,which is mainly reflected in population and economy.The research of the interactive evolution law of the two indicators above is of great significance to promote the regional coordinated development.Based on the data of resident population,per capita GDP and GDP of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(YRUA)from 2003 to 2017,this paper reveals the dynamic evolution process and possible mechanism of the population-economic spatial pattern quantitatively by means of gravity method,disequilibrium index and inconsistent index.The results are as follows:①the gravity center of population and economic of the YRUA are to the south,but the degree and trend of excursion are not the same;②the disequilibrium index of the YRUA decreases steadily during the research period,indicating the spatial pattern of population-economy is becoming more and more balanced.And the inconsisten index further divides the eight cities of the YRUA into continuous decline type (Yang,Tai,Tong), continuous rising type (Su,Xi) and fluctuating type (Ning,Chang,Zhen);③in the context of evolutionary economic geography, the dynamic evolution of the population-economic spatial pattern of the YRUA is the result of the joint action of economic and institutional stimulation. To improve the local government governance system and governance capacity modernization is an important way to accelerate the formation of the equilibrium pattern.