房产税能否缓解土地财政依赖?——基于合成控制法的实证分析

Can Real Estate Tax Relieve Financial Dependence on Land?--An Empirical Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method

以上海和重庆房产税试点改革为切入点,在分析房产税改革对土地财政依赖影响机理的基础上,基于全国35个大中城市2006-2016年度面板数据,采用合成控制法实证分析房产税改革对土地财政依赖的影响。实证结果表明:房产税通过房价、企业成本、企业投资来抑制地方政府的土地财政依赖,但影响程度存在显著差异。相比房产税改革试点前,上海、重庆对土地财政依赖程度出现不同程度的下降,这表明地方政府可根据本地土地财政现状,在中央政府的部署下,通过适度调整房产税政策来均衡地方政府收支结构,促进地区高质量持续发展。

How to effectively balance the excessive dependence of local governments on land grant income is a practical problem,and also a key issue for scholars to study.In this paper,the pilot reforms of real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing are taken as a natural experiment.Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the impact of real estate tax reform on land financial dependence,and based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2006 to 2016,the effect of real estate tax reform on land financial dependence is empirically analyzed by synthetic control method,and the robustness test is carried out by combining ranking method and double difference method.The results show that the local governments in Shanghai and Chongqing have decreased their dependence on land finance in different degrees compared with that before the pilot project of real estate tax reform.This shows that local governments should focus on studying the current situation of local land financial dependence.Under the deployment of the central government,local governments can balance their revenue and expenditure structure by adjusting the real estate tax policy appropriately,so as to promote high-quality and sustainable development of the region.