“一带一路”沿线国家来华留学生 与中国对外直接投资关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between International Students from Countries along The Belt and Road and China’s Foreign Direct Investment

本研究以2006-2017年为考察期,利用PVAR模型对“一带一路”沿线44个样本国家的来华留学生规模和中国对其直接投资量之间的动态影响关系进行分析,发现二者存在显著的相互依存关系。研究结果显示:OFDI规模增长在短期内对沿线国留学生流入有明显的正向冲击作用,它是二者关系进一步发展的强烈动因,且具有一定的引导性;沿线国来华留学规模增长是推动OFDI发展的基本源动力之一,并存在较强的正效应,但整体质量不高、经济贡献率偏低;OFDI规模扩张对其本身进一步的发展具有一定的拉动作用,但后期动力不足;受我国高等教育国际化水平、国际价值链地位等因素的影响,双边人才存量对留学生来华促进作用有限。基于此,政府应合理评估沿线国家投资环境,集约化经营OFDI发展模式,以推动区位资源结构优化和提高全球化价值链的地位;同时,还应搭建国际化人才交流体系、健全留学教育质量保障制度和拓宽留学生学科专业招生范围,发展我国人力资源的核心竞争力。

Based on the 2006—2017 study period,the PVAR model used the study to empirically analyze the number of international students from 44 sample countries along the Belt and Road route and the ongoing impact of China's direct investment in China.On the whole,there is a significant interdependence between the two.The results show that the growth of OFDI scale has a significantly positive impact on the inflow of international students in the countries along the route in the short term,which is a strong driving force for the further development of the relationship between the two countries and has a certain guiding effect.The overall quality is not high and its economic contribution rate is low.While OFDI expansion has a certain pull for its own further development,the motivation is not enough,Influenced by the internationalization level of higher education in China,and the status of the international value chain and other factors,the contribution of bilateral talent stock to attracting international students to come to China is limited.Therefore,the study holds that the government should reasonably evaluate the investment environment of the countries along the route and intensively operate the OFDI development model for the optimization of the location resource structure and improve the global value chain.At the same time,it’s important to set up an international talent exchange system and improve the quality assurance system of study international education for,the development of China's core competitiveness of human resources.