城市文化遗产洪涝灾害风险评估模型构建——以广州市为例

Flood Risk Assessment Model for Urban Cultural Heritage:A Case Study of Guangzhou City

洪涝灾害危害面广大,为预见城市文化遗产的洪涝风险,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、抗灾力4个方面构建城市文化遗产洪涝灾害风险评估模型,并以广州市文化遗产为例进行评估。结果表明:不同类型文化遗产对灾害因子的响应程度存在差异,遗产级别与综合风险系数成正相关,且以越秀、海珠中心城区及白云区遗产综合洪涝风险最大,花都区和白云区遗产致灾风险最高,越秀区、黄浦区和从化区遗产抗灾力最差。构建文化遗产洪涝灾害风险评估模型,能够增加对未来遗产风险的掌握,提高对遗产的应急防范。

Flood disasters had a wide range of harms.In order to foresee the flood risks of urban cultural heritage,taking Guangzhou as an example,a risk assessment model for urban cultural heritage was constructed from four aspects:hazard factors,hazard-formative environment,hazard bearing body and disaster resistance ability.The results show that different types of cultural heritage have different degrees of response to disaster factors,the level of heritage is positively correlated with the flood risk,and the comprehensive flood risk of Yuexiu,Haizhu and Baiyun is the highest;Huadu and Baiyun have the most risky of hazard factors;Yuexiu,Huangpu and Conghua have the worst disaster resistance.Establishing a cultural heritage flood risk assessment model can increase the grasp of future heritage risks and improve the emergency prevention of heritage.