“反哺”还是“虹吸”:我国资源型城市工业与农业关系研究

Nurturing"or"Syphoning":The Relationship Between Industry and Agriculture in China′s Resource-Based Cities

通过聚焦资源型城市,从产出层面、投入层面和效率层面,采用动态线性回归法、广义矩估计法和非参数协方差矩阵模型,衡量了工业反哺农业的实现水平。研究表明,最初级的粗放型反哺在产出层面和投入层面已经实现,资源型城市的工业产值和工业投资都带动农业发展,而工业对农业的集约型反哺并未实现。在效率层面,工业全要素生产率的提升对农业表现为虹吸效应;农业产值自回归效应显著,农业发展具有强烈的延续性和路径依赖。文章的政策意义在于,应充分利用工业规模扩张对农业的溢出效应,强化工业效率提升对农业的带动作用,构建知识层面的工农业“智力回路”和技术层面的农业信息化体系;应尊重农业生产的自然规律,充分预期、提前布局,保证农业资源的专用型和农业政策的平稳性。

From the perspective of input,output and efficiency,the author uses the dynamic linear panel model,the generalized method of moments model and nonparametric covariance matrix estimation to measure the status of industry nurturing agriculture in China′s resources-based cities.Firstly,the primary extensive nurturing is achieved in terms of input and output,which means that the industrial inputs and outputs do promote the agricultural production.Secondly,the intensive feeding back of industry to agriculture has not been realized.On the efficiency level,the promotion of industrial total factor productivity has a syphoning effect on agriculture.Thirdly,agricultural production is significantly positive in auto-regression,which means that agricultural development is sustainable and path-dependent.The significance of this research on policy making is that an intellectual loop and an agricultural informational system should be constructed by making full use of the spill-over effect of industry on agriculture and the promoting effect of the increase of industrial efficiency on agriculture.Agricultural resources should be used for specific purpose and the agricultural policy should be stable after full anticipation and careful planning based on the natural law of agriculture.