气候变化对中低风速风电场发电出力影响分析

Analysis on Influence of Climate Change on Electricity Generation of Wind Farms with Medium and Low Wind Speeds

风力发电以风能为一次能源,易受气候条件的影,对长时间尺度下气候模式的变化比较敏感。气候变化可能明显地改变风速的统计分布特性,影响风力发电机组的功率输出。因风能与风速的立方呈比例,长时间尺度上气候模式变化导致的平均风速异动对中低风速风电场的影响更为突出。收集、整理了我国中、东部6个气象观测站点1973年-2012年间的气象数据,从长时间尺度上考察分析了气候变化对各调查站点风速、风功率密度等级以及典型机组容量系数的影响。仿真计算表明,内陆站点(衡山、泰山、黄山和庐山)受气候变化影响较大,风速和典型机组的容量系数均有不同程度的下降趋势,黄山和庐山的风功率密度等级退化明显;沿海站点(九仙山、成山头)无明显长期变化趋势,风功率密度等级一直维持在较高水准。

As a primary energy source,wind power generation is susceptible to climatic conditions and issensitive to changes in climate patterns over a long time scale.Climate changes may significantly alter the statistical distribution characteristics of wind speeds and affect the power output of wind turbines. Since wind energy is proportional to the cubic of wind speed,the influence of the average wind speed variation caused by the change of climate patterns over a long time scale on wind farms with medium and low wind speeds is more prominent. This paper collects and sorts out the meteorological data of 6 meteorological observation stations in central and eastern China from 1973 to 2012,and then from a long time scale,investigates and analyzes the effects of climate change on wind speed,wind power density level and capacity coefficient of typical units at each station. The simulation shows that the inland sites(in Hengshan,Taishan,Huangshan and Lushan)are greatly affected by climate change and the wind speed,and the capacity coefficient of typical units have different degrees of decline,with the wind power density grade of Huangshan Mountain and Lushan Mountain obviously degraded;the coastal stations(in Jiuxianshan and Chengshantou)have no obvious long-termchangetrend,and the wind power density level has been maintained at a high level.