省直管县改革背景下地级市空间溢出效应对县域产业结构的影响

The spatial spillover effects of prefectural cities on county’s industrial structure during the "province governing county" reform

地级市空间溢出效应对于县域产业结构产生重要影响,评估这种影响对于深化省直管县体制改革具有重要的理论和政策意义。在对河南省直管县体制改革历程及省直管县(市)特点进行分析的基础上,通过构建县域产业结构的计量模型,采用2004-2016年河南省县级单元的相关数据,研究了直管县体制改革带来的不同类型扩权以及省直管县(市)所在地级市溢出效应对于县域产业结构的影响,并通过省直管县(市)的深度访谈进行了验证。研究表明:①经济管理权限的下放加快了县域第三产业的增长,而社会管理权限的下放则全面抑制了所有产业的产出水平。②农业和非农产业受到所在地级市溢出效应的影响是相反的,经济管理权限的下放会加剧溢出效应。越是相对欠发达的县域,农业受到的涓滴效应越明显;越是相对欠发达的县域,非农产业受到的极化效应越明显,且第三产业比第二产业更为显著;③宜对更多县域下放经济管理权限,但对社会管理权限的下放则应慎重。地级市发展水平较高和较低的地区,应当分别选择农业比重较高的县域和非农产业发展基础较好的县域推进省直管县体制改革。

The spatial spillover effects of prefecture-level cities have impacts on the industrial structure of counties. An assessment of such impacts will have important theoretical and policy implications for deepening the "province governing county"(PGC) reform. This paper reviewed the process and characteristics of PGC reform in Henan Province. Based on an econometric model of county’s industrial structure as well as in-depth interviews, the study examined how county empowerment and the spillover effects of prefectural cities affect the industrial structure of counties. Several findings deserve to be highlighted. First, during 2004-2016, the decentralization of economic authority accelerated the growth of the tertiary sector at the county level, whereas the decentralization of social power inhibited the output level for all industries. Secondly, the spillover effects of prefectural cities have opposite impacts on agriculture and non-agricultural industries, and the decentralization of economic authority amplifies the spillover effects. The trickle-down effects on agriculture are more noticeable in less developed counties, whereas the polarization effects on non-agricultural sectors(especially the tertiary sector) are more obvious in economically advanced counties. Thirdly, we argue that the delegation of economic authority could be implemented in a larger number of counties,though cautious steps need to be taken in delegating social management power. In more developed prefecture-level cities, the PGC reform should be conducted in agricultural counties;in less developed cities, by contrast, counties with higher level of industrialization should be chosen for the PGC reform.