人口规模与城市轨道交通的治堵效应

Population size and impacts of Metro Transit on traffic congestion

利用高德地图发布的道路交通拥堵延时指数大数据,结合断点回归方法,对全国省会城市2015年10月至2018年9月新开通的40多条轨道交通线路进行了分析。结果显示:轨道交通虽能缓解城市道路交通的拥堵状况,但效果并不明显,存在着异质性影响;常住人口在600万至900万人的城市新增轨道交通的治堵效应显著,不足600万人及超过900万人的城市,治堵效应不显著。进一步研究发现,造成治堵效应异质性及总体不显著的原因在于,地方政府兴建轨道交通的决策机制造成了站点布局、通车里程与出行总需求之间的错配。

Based on the road traffic congestion delay index released by Amap,this essay estimates the influences of more than 40 new routes opened in the capital cities of China from October 2015 to September 2018 on road traffic conditions by Breakpoint Regression Method.The empirical results show that:Although metro transit can alleviate urban road traffic congestion,the effect is not significant,and there are heterogeneous effects;The mitigating effect of newly added metro transit in cities with permanent population of 6 million to 9 million is significant,otherwise the effect is not significant.Further analysis shows that the heterogeneity of congestion control effect and the overall insignificance are caused by the mismatch between site layout,mileage and total travel demand caused by the decision-making mechanism of local government to build metro transit.