湖北省人口收缩城市的空间格局与类型识别

Spatial distribution and classification of population Shrinking Cities in Hubei Province

通过对湖北省82个县(市、区)的常住人口变化率和人口净流量进行交互分析,引入城乡建设用地脱钩模型和人口—土地城镇化协调指数,分析了人口收缩区域建设用地结构和城镇化协调类型。结果显示,湖北省存在37个人口持续流出、规模减少的区域,这些区域不仅在总量上表现为人口收缩与建设用地扩张的悖论关系,而且在城镇化方面也多表现为人口城镇化与土地城镇化不协调的状态,而从城乡建设用地结构的角度表现为不同的脱钩类型,其中仅有少数收缩区域是强脱钩的合理利用状态。从不同表现特征可将收缩城市类型分为空间无序扩张型、工业衰退型、资源枯竭型以及中心袭夺型四个类别,并概括为人口资源与土地资源、经济发展等在时空上的不匹配。最后,结合资源禀赋、经济结构变化等特征对人口收缩区域类别进行了归纳,并提出了针对性的城市规划和发展建议。

The population shrinking regions are defined by the interactive analysis of resident population change rate and the net population flow of 82 counties(cities and districts)in Hubei Province.The decoupling model of urban and rural construction land and the population-land urbanization level coordination index is introduced to analyze the characteristics of construction land expansion with population shrinkage.Then,this essay summarizes the types of population shrinking cities and gives some suggestions for urban planning and development combining with the characteristics of resource endowment and economic structure change.The results show that:There are 37 shrinking population cities with continuous outflow and scale reduction in Hubei Province;There is not only a paradox relationship between population shrinking and expansion of construction land,but also an uncoordinated state between population urbanization and land urbanization in urban shrinking cities;Some shrinking cities are characterized by strong decoupling in terms of the structure of urban and rural construction land.From different performance characteristics,the shrinkage city types can be divided into four categories:spatial disorder expanding,industrial declining,resources exhausting and central capturing.