大型展馆建设对中国展览业发展的影响——基于城市动态面板数据的系统广义矩估计法

The Impact of Large Venues Construction on the Development of China’s Exhibition Industry:Based on SYS GMM with Urban Dynamic Panel Data

在展馆面积和数量急剧增长,而展馆利用率却持续偏低的背景下,大型展馆建设能否促进展览业发展成为亟须探讨的重要问题。基于2012年-2018年中国79个城市的动态面板数据,利用系统广义矩估计法(SYS GMM),实证检验发现:大型展馆建设对展览业发展水平有显著正向影响,大型展馆能促进中国展览业的发展;前期展览业发展水平对当期展览业发展有积极影响,表明中国展览业呈现自我强化式的发展特点;对外开放程度、第三产业人力资源禀赋对展览业发展产生积极效应,城市交通条件对展览业发展产生消极效应,经济发展水平对展览业发展影响的显著性并不稳健,各控制变量对中国展览业发展产生不同的作用;分地区看,东部城市大型展馆的估计系数大于西部城市,这意味着大型展馆建设的展览业发展效应存在区域差异,东部地区建设大型展馆更容易发挥其展览业发展效应。此外,多方法的比较研究显示,系统广义矩估计法在评价大型展馆建设的展览业发展效应上相对严谨。

In sharp contrast to the rapid growth of the pavilion area and the number of venues,the utilization rate of the venue resources continued to be low;therefore,it is urgent to discuss whether the construction of large venues can promote the development of the exhibition industry.Based on the dynamic panel data of 79 exhibition cities in China from 2012 to 2018,this paper used the system generalized moment estimation method(SYS-GMM)to make an empirical test and found that:the construction of large venues has a significant positive impact on the development level of exhibition industry,so that large venues can promote the development of China’s exhibition industry;the development level of early exhibition industry has a positive impact on the development of the current exhibition industry,showing a characteristic of self-reinforcing development;the characteristics of intensive development,the degree of opening to the outside world and the human resource endowment of the tertiary industry have a positive effect on the development of the exhibition industry,the urban traffic conditions have a negative effect on the development of the exhibition industry,and the significance of the economic development level on the development of the exhibition industry is not stable,which shows that each control variable has different effects on the development of the exhibition industry in China;In terms of different regions,the estimated coefficient of large venues in the eastern region is larger than that in the western region,which means that the construction of large venues in the eastern region is easier to play its exhibition industry development effect,and there are regional differences in the development effect of large venues.In addition,by making a comparison of multiple methods,it was found that SYS-GMM is relatively rigorous to evaluate the effect of large venues construction.