中国旅游业资本流动与生产率演化——基于DSSA方法的结构效应分析

Capital Flow and Productivity Evolution of China’s Tourism Industry:Structure Effect Analysis Based on DSSA Method

在中国旅游业转型升级的重要时期,开展全国及31个省份旅游产业结构变动与生产率演化的研究具有显著的理论与现实意义。鉴于结构变动是影响生产率增长的一个重要因素,本文运用DSSA方法对全国及31个省份2000年—2016年旅游业资本生产率增长率进行分解,测度产业结构变动的生产率增长效应。结果发现,不同地区或省份之间表现出较大差异。在年度静态结构效应上,东部地区开放型旅游经济较为发达,各省份总体发展态势较为稳定,伴有阶段性波动;中部地区旅游经济相对闭塞,各省份总体发展的平稳性最差,波动性介于东部地区与西部地区之间;西部地区在大开发背景下旅游经济增长较快,各省份总体发展的平稳性介于东部地区与中部地区之间,波动性最大。在年度动态结构效应上,全国大部分省份在大部分年份都出现“结构负利”,动态结构能力亟须改善。尽管各省份表现出差异化的静态结构能力和动态结构能力,但是我国整体旅游产业结构升级与旅游经济增长的发展态势相耦合。本文的结构效应分析结果可为东部、中部和西部地区及不同省份旅游业转型升级提供理论依据和决策参考。

In the important period of China’s tourism transforming and upgrading process,studies on the change of tourism industrial structure and productivity evolution in China and 31 provinces are of significant theoretical and practical value.Given that structural change is an important factor affecting productivity growth,this paper used the dynamic shift-share method to decompose the capital productivity growth rate of tourism industry in China and that of its 31 provinces from 2000 to 2016,and measured the productivity growth effect of the industrial structure change.The results show that with the redistribution of capital factors among different tourism industries,the total capital productivity growth of tourism of the country as a whole and that of different provinces are different.From the perspective of quantitative analysis of the structural change effect,there are great differences among different regions or provinces.As to the annual static structure effect,the open tourism economy in the east is relatively developed and the overall development situation of eastern provinces is relatively stable,accompanied by phased fluctuations;tourism economy of the central is relatively closed and the overall development of central provinces is least stable,and the volatility is between the eastern and western provinces;the tourism economy in western China is growing fast under the background of the great western development strategy and the overall development stationarity of western provinces is between the eastern and central provinces with the greatest fluctuation.In terms of annual dynamic structural effect,most provinces in China have experienced“negative structural benefits”in most of the years,and the dynamic structural capability needs to be improved urgently.Although the provinces show differentiated static and dynamic structural capabilities,the developmental situation of China’s overall tourism industry structure upgrading couples with that of tourism economic growth.The authors believe that these results of structural effect analysis can provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for tourism transformation and upgrading in eastern,central and western regions and different provinces in China.