利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测某三甲医院消化内科住院患者医院感染发生率

Prediction of nosocomial infection rate among inpatients of gastroenterology department in a tertiary hospital by grey GM(1,1) model

目的利用灰色模型预测某三甲医院消化内科住院患者医院感染发生率,为控制医院感染提供科学依据。方法通过收集某三甲医院2012-2018年消化内科住院患者临床病历资料,统计分析医院感染发生率,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测分析。结果某三甲医院2012-2018年消化内科住院患者27 350例,医院感染患者648例,医院感染发生率为2. 37%。拟合灰色GM(1,1)模型检验统计量C为0. 348,P=1. 00,模型精确等级为1级;误差绝对值保持在0~0. 035%之间,平均误差值为0. 018%。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型预测结果较好,可为消化内科医院感染防控提供参考依据。

Objective To predict the incidence of nosocomial infection in inpatients of gastroenterology department in a tertiary hospital by grey model,and to provide scientific basis for control of nosocomial infection. Methods The data of clinical records of inpatients in gastroenterology department of a tertiary hospital from 2012 to 2018 were collected to statistically analyze the incidence of nosocomial infections,and the gray GM( 1,1) model was used for predictive analysis.Results There were 27 350 inpatients in gastroenterology department of a tertiary hospital from 2012 to 2018,and 648 patients had nosocomial infection,and the nosocomial infection rate was 2. 37%. The statistical value C of fitting grey GM( 1,1) model test was 0. 348,P = 1. 00,and the model accuracy level was 1;the absolute error value remained between0-0. 035%,and the average error value was 0. 018%. Conclusions The grey GM( 1,1) model has a good prediction result,which can provide a reference for prevention and control of nosocomial infection in gastroenterology department.