江苏省县域乡村集聚与脆弱性评价

Agglomeration and Vulnerability Assessment at the County Scale in Rural Jiangsu Province

基于脆弱性视角探究乡村地域系统可持续发展情况与集聚特征的空间关联效应,对推进美丽乡村建设具有重要意义。以SPOT2/4全色和Landsat TM卫星遥感融合影像为主要数据源,解译校正得到2016年江苏省乡村聚落斑块。在利用平均最近邻距离指数、核密度估计和标准差椭圆方法明确江苏省乡村集聚分布特征的同时,从资源、经济和社会脆弱性视角构建乡村脆弱性综合评价模型,进一步探讨县域乡村空间集聚特征与脆弱性发展程度的关联规律。结果表明:①江苏省乡村地域自内核向外缘分布密度逐渐递减,苏北地区中部、苏南和苏中地区毗邻处乡村聚落密集分布,整体空间异质性和集聚形态的方向性特征明显;②江苏省县域乡村脆弱程度存在地域分区不均衡现象,子系统相关性较弱,空间耦合特征尚不明显;③资源脆弱性子系统与经济、社会脆弱性之间均存在显著负相关关系,是当前江苏省县域乡村发展的薄弱环节;④江苏省县域乡村资源、经济和社会单一脆弱子系统集聚分布特征明显,综合脆弱性与集聚特征并未实现空间良性共振。

It is significant for promoting the revitalization of beautiful rural areas while exploring the spatial correlation between sustainable development and agglomeration characteristics of rural areas based on the perspective of vulnerability. Taking remote sensing imagery as data source, we interpreted and identified the rural settlement patches of Jiangsu Province in 2016. While using the average nearest neighbor, kernel density estimation, and standard deviation ellipse method to clarify the rural agglomeration pattern in Jiangsu Province at the county scale, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation model of rural total vulnerability from the perspective of resources, economic, and social vulnerability. Furthermore, we explored the relationship between spatial agglomeration characteristics and vulnerability level in rural areas at the county scale. Results show:(1) The distribution of rural areas in Jiangsu Province decreased gradually from the core to the outer edge. Besides, rural settlements were densely distributed in the adjacent areas of southern and central Jiangsu as well as in the central part of northern Jiangsu. The overall spatial heterogeneity and directional characteristics of agglomeration patterns were obvious.(2) There was a regional imbalance in the rural vulnerability of Jiangsu Province at the county scale. While apart from a weak subsystems’ correlation, the spatial coupling characteristics were not obvious.(3) There was a significant negative correlation between economic vulnerability, social vulnerability,and resource vulnerability, of which the latter two had weak links of rural development in Jiangsu Province.(4) The single vulnerable subsystems of resources, economy, and society in rural areas of Jiangsu Province at the county scale showed obvious agglomeration characteristics, while the comprehensive vulnerability and agglomeration characteristics had not achieved a benign spatial resonance.