剔除非管理性因素影响的我国集成电路产业技术创新效率研究:基于广义三阶段 DEA 和 Tobit 模型

Research on technology innovation efficiency of China’s IC industry eliminating the influence of non-operating factors:Analysis based on generalized GRA-DEA and tobit

基于集成电路产业技术创新过程中所具有的特点,并考虑非管理性因素对技术创新效率产生的影响,运用广义三阶段DEA模型评价和比较我国集成电路产业整体及产业链各环节技术创新效率及差异,并进行投入要素的投影分析,在此基础上借助Tobit回归模型对技术创新效率的影响因素进行研究。结果表明,我国集成电路产业整体技术创新效率呈上升态势,而产业链各环节除封测业因技术换挡而呈现“N”型发展态势外,其余环节与产业整体情况相同;产业链各环节技术创新的投入冗余情况则各有不同,但制造业和装备业是投入冗余较为集中的环节;产业结构升级加速使得当前企业规模与技术创新效率呈现出负相关性,而企业R&D人员投入和人才密集性对技术创新效率分别存在消极和积极影响,可见效率提升的关键在于R&D人员的“质”而非“量”,政府支持程度则对技术创新效率有明显积极作用,但企业R&D经费投入对技术创新效率的影响并不显著,在当前产业发展阶段,高投入并不一定会产生高效率。

The integrated circuit industry(ICI)is the foundation of national information security and national economic development.However,due to China's huge downstream market demand and lack of core technologies,the current self-sufficiency of China's integrated circuit(IC)market is very low,and the effectiveness of core technology depends greatly on industrial automation.China's IC industry has become very urgently in need of improvement of its independent innovation capabilities;however,with the rapid increase in the technical complexity of the ICI,the cost of technological innovation is also exponentially increasing.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct research on the efficiency of technological innovation in the industry,and how it is affected not only by management attitudes towards enterprise technological innovation,but also by some non-management factors.First,based on the characteristics of the technological innovation process of the ICI,and considering the impact of non-management factors(external environment,random error,and changes in the overall level of development of the industry)on the efficiency of technological innovation,a generalized three-stage DEA model is used to evaluate technological innovation efficiency,scale efficiency,and pure technical efficiency in China's ICI as a whole,as well as in each link of the industrial chain.The study found that the technological innovation efficiency of China's ICI showed an upward trend during the sample period,and that scale efficiency was the main factor hindering the improvement of its overall innovation efficiency;the patterns in these efficiency factors are reflected in each link of the industrial chain,as well as by shifts in technology in the packaging and testing industry.With the exception of the N-type development trend,the rest of the efficiency factors follow the same upward trend as the overall situation of the industry.Secondly,on the basis of the aforementioned analysis,the projection of technological innovation efficiency is analyzed.The results of this research show that the input redundancy of technological innovation in each link of the industrial chain is different,but most significant in the manufacturing and equipment industries.Enterprises in different links of the current ICI chain should make tailored adjustments according to their particular situation of input redundancy.Finally,the Tobit regression model is used to study the factors influencing technological innovation efficiency.Considering that the value of technological innovation efficiency is computed as a restricted dependent variable,regression analysis using the ordinary least squares method is likely to be more compromised by bias,whereas the Tobit regression model is relatively less susceptible.The study finds that the acceleration of industrial structure upgrades has caused the current trends in enterprise scale and technological innovation efficiency to exhibit a negative correlation,while enterprise R&D personnel availability and talent have negative and positive effects on technological innovation efficiency,respectively.It becomes clear that the key to efficiency improvement lies in the“quality”rather than the“quantity”of R&D personnel,and that while the degree of government support has a significant positive effect on the efficiency of technological innovation,the impact of corporate R&D expenditure on the efficiency of technological innovation is not significant.In China’s current stage of industrial development,substantial investment does not necessarily yield high efficiency.