跨境资本流动:多视角特征分析和政策启示

Cross-border Capital Flows:Multi-Angle Characteristics Analysis and Policy Enlightenment

本文系统梳理了全球、发达经济体、发展中经济体和中国的跨境资本流动趋势和特点,分析发现:就全球资本流动而言,总量趋于稳定,FDI流动稳中有升有降,证券投资由净流入转为净流出。就发达和发展中经济资本流动而言,其金融项目差额呈现相反趋势,直接投资流动的波动性有所差异,证券投资净额趋势两类经济体差异较大。就中国的资本流动而言,跨境资本流动呈现双向大幅波动趋势,直接投资呈上升趋势,证券投资和其他投资出现大幅波动。所带来的政策启示是:中国应当坚持相机抉择和稳健中性原则,把握好跨境资本管理节奏;人民币国际化不应倒逼资本项目过快开放;从国际国内两个层面防范和化解跨境资本大规模流动的风险;加强国家之间的政策协调。

This paper systematically summarizes the trends and characteristics of cross-border capital flows in the world,developed economies,developing economies and China,and finds that,in terms of global capital flows,total flows tend to be stable,FDI flows have risen and fell steadily,and portfolio investment has shifted from net inflows to net outflows.In terms of capital flows from developed and developing economies,the balance of their financial portfolio shows a reverse trend,with variations in the volatility of direct investment flows and a large difference in the trend of net portfolio investment between the two groups of economies.As far as Chinese capital flows are concerned,cross-border capital flows have shown a two-way trend of large fluctuations,direct investment has shown an upward trend,and securities and other investments have experienced large fluctuations.The policy implications are as follows:China should adhere to the principle of camera choice and robust neutrality,and grasp the rhythm of cross-border Capital Management;The internationalization of the RMB should not force the opening of capital projects too quickly;Preventing and mitigating the risks of large-scale cross-border capital flows at both the international and domestic levels;Enhanced policy coordination among countries.