资源枯竭型城市经济转型效果评价——以黄石市为例

Evaluation of Economic Transformation Effect of Resource--Exhausted Cties:a Case Study of Huangshi City

以黄石市为例,通过构建经济转型评价指标体系,运用主成分—因子分析法,评价该市2001—2017年经济转型效果,结果显示:(1)黄石经济转型效果评价因素由经济—就业状况、接替产业状况以及采矿业发展状况三部分构成。(2)2001—2017年黄石市经济转型可分为两个阶段,第一阶段为2001—2010年,是逐渐探索转型之路的低速上升阶段;第二阶段为2011—2017年,是转型规划后的快速上升阶段;黄石市经济转型过程中产业结构调整效果并不明显,接替产业发展缓慢。(3)采矿业虽为经济转型过程中应该逐渐弱化的产业,但在转型期其转型效果并不明显,过度发展在一定程度上阻碍了黄石市整体经济的发展。基于上述结论,对黄石市经济转型提出三点建议:加大对接替产业的扶植,逐渐削弱对资源型产业的过度依赖;重视下岗工人的培训和再就业;经济转型短期内应采取采矿业与接替产业协调发展的模式。

Taking Huangshi city as an example,this paper builds the economic transformation evaluation index system,uses Principal Component Analysis(PCA)to evaluate the economic transformation effect of Huangshi City from 2001 to 2017,and obtains the following results:the evaluation factors of Huangshi economic transformation effect are composed of three parts:the economic-employment situation,the replacement industry and the development of mining industry;The city economic transformation effect is generally good,and can be divided into two stages:one is the low-speed growth stage from the year of 2001 to 2010before the transformation plan,the other is the high-speed growth stage from 2011 to 2017 after the plan.Although mining industry is an industry that should be gradually weakened in the process of economic transformation,its transformation effect is not obvious in the transition period,and its excessive development hinders the overall economic development of huangshi city to some extent..Based on the conclusions above,this paper puts forward three suggestions for the economic transformation of Huangshi City:to increase the support for replacement industries and gradually weaken the excessive dependence on resource-based industries;to attach importance to the training and re-employment of laid-off workers and to adopt the mode of coordinated development of mining and replacement industries in a short period of time.