基于四阶段法的高铁核心区土地开发规模预测——以张家港站为例

A Predictive Analysis of High-Speed Rail Core Area Land Development Scale Based on Four-Stage Approach:Taking Zhangjiagang as an Example

随着我国高铁站点的大力新建,各地政府纷纷规划建设高铁新城,带动城市的发展高铁新城改变着城市的格局,其土地开发规模规划与市区发展有着密不可分的关系文中通过分析规划年市区和高铁新区的建设用地规模、人口、经济与产业、交通网络、时空距离等因素,利用四阶段法对各业态的开发规模与需求规模进行预测,分析得出各种业态开发的容积率;通过P A转化和O D平衡,以及多因素阻抗矩阵分析,对各业态开发与需求面积分析分配,可以得出高铁新城与城市之间各业态的联系强度:,以张家港站为例进行实例验证,证明了预测模型的合理性与可操作性,文中土地开发规模预测模型为政府和开发商确定开发强度提供一定参考.

As more and more China's railway stations are being built,local governments over the country start to plan and build new rail cities which could be a driving motive for the development of cities.The frame of city is being changed by new rail cities,whose land development scale is bound together inextricably with urban development.With an analysis of construction land scale,population、economy and industry、transportation networks,space-time distance and soforth,The volume ratio of business development of urban and new rail areas is investigated by the Four-Stage Approach to predictions on development and need scale of industries for a planning year.Through PA Conversion,OD Balance,and Multi-factor Impedance-Mismatch Matrix,the relation intensity of various business forms between new rail city and urban cityis calculated from allocating and analyzing of business development and demanding area.Finally,Taking Zhangjiagang station as an example,It provides both rationality and operability for development scale prediction module,which could provide guidance on development intensity calculation for governments and developers.