不同回报机制下PPP项目社会风险涌现机理研究

Research on emergence mechanism of social risk for PPP projects under different return mechanism

为进一步定量化分析PPP社会风险的涌现机理与演化特性,本文提出了综合PPP模式特性、社会风险环境以及社会公众的社会风险涌现模型,并以Netlogo软件为平台构建计算实验模型,进一步探究回报机制在社会风险演化中的作用机理.计算结果显示,不同回报机制下社会风险水平与潜在风险水平存在一定差异性;社会风险等级、项目规模与政府风险应对能力均不同程度影响PPP项目社会风险水平;在PPP项目社会风险发展早期采取针对性措施,能够有效控制社会风险水平.

To quantificationally analyze the emergence mechanism and evolution characteristics of PPP social risk,this paper proposes a comprehensive model of emergence of PPP social risk including characteristic of PPP itself,social risk environment and social public.To explore the mechanism of return mechanism in social risk evolution,a computing experimental platform is built through Netlogo software.The results show that there are certain differences between the level of social risk and potential risk under different return mechanism.Secondly,the social environment,project scale and government risk coping ability directly affect the social risk level of PPP project in varying degrees.Thirdly,early adoption of targeted measures in the development of social risk can effectively control the social risk level.