如何应对新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济的影响

TACKLING THE FALLOUT FROM COVID-19

新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的爆发给人类带来了痛苦和经济损失。由于中国在全球供应链、旅游业和大宗商品市场中的重要地位,全世界都感受到了中国产出收缩带来的负面影响及连锁反应。在其他经济体爆发的疫情同样也产生了类似的负面影响。全球经济增长前景面临高度的不确定性。为了提供可能结果和政策建议的区间,我们模拟了最好和最坏两种情景。假设中国的疫情在2020年一季度得到了广泛的控制,其他国家疫情得到温和遏制,预计2020年全球经济增长将下调0.5个百分点至2.4%。如果疫情在亚太地区、欧洲和北美爆发的时间更长、强度更大,预计2020年全球经济增长将下调1.5个百分点至1.4%。各国应采取有效措施来阻止疫情传播,支持医疗卫生系统及从业者,并保护弱势群体和受影响企业。支持性的宏观经济政策有助于恢复市场信心和提振需求,但无法抵消强制停工和旅行限制造成的直接干扰。如果经济下行风险上升,协调一致的多边行动将是最有效的手段。

The coronavirus(COVID-19)outbreak has already brought considerable human suffering and major economic disruption.Output contractions in China are being felt around the world,reflecting the key and rising role China has in global supply chains,travel and commodity markets.Subsequent outbreaks in other economies are having similar effects.As the epidemic situation is evolving by the day,it is even more difficult than usual to project the economic outlook.This is why we focus on best-case and downside-risk scenarios in order to offer an interval of possible outcomes and policy proposals to soften the economic implications of the virus.On the assumption that the epidemic peaks in China in the first quarter of 2020 and outbreaks in other countries prove mild and contained,global growth could be lowered by around 1/2 percentage point this year relative to that expected in the November 2019 Economic Outlook.If a longer lasting and more intensive coronavirus outbreak,spreading widely throughout the Asia-Pacific region,Europe and North America,global growth could drop to 1^1/2 per cent in 2020.Governments need to ensure effective measures to prevent infection and contagion,and implement well-targeted policies to support health care systems and workers,and protect the incomes of vulnerable social groups and businesses during the virus outbreak.Supportive macroeconomic policies can help to restore confidence and aid the recovery of demand as virus outbreaks ease,but cannot offset the immediate disruptions that result from enforced shutdowns and travel restrictions.If downside risks materialize,coordinated multilateral actions would be the most effective means.