印度经济变局与中印经贸合作建议

India Economic Change and Proposal on China-India Economic and Trade Cooperation

"莫迪新政"针对印度重大结构性问题进行改革,短期影响利弊兼有,但长期有利于印度发展已是共识。印度经济增速持续滑坡主要源于影子银行危机带来的流动性短缺,2020年有望触底回升。印度已步入人口红利期,随着工业化、城镇化推进,营商环境不断优化,经济有望在相当长时期内保持快速增长。受基础设施瓶颈、资源环境脆弱、金融风险较高、社会矛盾多发、政府执行能力较弱等诸多因素制约,在同期发展阶段超越"中国速度"基本不可能,但2050年成长为具有全球重要影响力的新兴大国应无悬念。

‘Modi’s new deal’ is aimed at reforming India’s major structural issues, it has both advantages and disadvantages in the short term, but it is a consensus that it will benefit India in the long run. The continued decline in India’s economic growth is mainly due to the liquidity shortage brought about by the shadow banking crisis. It is expected to bottom out in 2020. India has entered a period of demographic dividend. With the advancement of industrialization and urbanization, the business environment has been continuously optimized, and the economy is expected to maintain rapid growth for a considerable period of time. Constrained by many factors such as infrastructure bottlenecks, fragile resources and environment, high financial risks, frequent social conflicts, and weak government implementation capabilities, it is almost impossible to surpass the ‘China speed’ in the same development stage, but it should be no suspense for 2050 to grow into an emerging power with a significant global influence.