中国货币政策预期管理有效性及政策透明度研究——基于社会融资规模数据

A Study on the Effectiveness and Transparency of Anticipated Management of China’s Monetary Policy:Based on Social Financing Scale Data

在全球范围经济下行、国内外经济复杂性、不确定性因素叠加背景下,2015年以来央行多次强调货币政策预期管理的重要性。本文从异质性预期角度出发,以社会融资规模作为监测指标,构建社会网络模型研究社融规模的预期形成机制,选取2015年1月-2019年2月的月度社融规模数据,动态模拟检验中国货币政策预期管理的有效性及央行透明度对预期管理有效性的影响,研究发现,社会预期最终的共识性与央行透明度和央行预期管理力度没有关系,不同路径下的预期管理策略存在明显差异性,通过提高央行的透明度有助于加快社会预期达成共识的速度和提升央行的公信力。

In the context of a global economic downturn,domestic and foreign economic complexity,and uncertainties,the central bank has repeatedly emphasized the importance of forward management of monetary policy since 2015.From the perspective of heterogeneous expectations,this paper takes the scale of social financing as a monitoring indicator,constructs a social network model to study the forward formation mechanism of the scale of social finance,and selects the monthly scale of social finance from January 2015 to February 2019.Dynamic simulation tests the effectiveness of forward management of China’s monetary policy and the impact of central bank transparency on the effectiveness of forward management.The study finds that the final consensus of social forward has nothing to do with central bank transparency and central bank forward management efforts.There are obvious differences in forward management strategies in different paths.By increasing the transparency of the central bank,it will help accelerate the speed with which society forward consensus and the credibility of the central bank.