地方政府财政压力、土地出让收益与房地产价格——来自中国35城市面板数据的证据

Local Government Fiscal Pressure,Land Transfer Income and Real Estate Price:Evidence from China’s 35 Cities Panel Data

近年来,中国房价上升受地价推动、而地价上升受地方政府财政压力推动这一假说广为流传,但并无实证支持。基于对财政压力之下的政府行为模式的分析,采用中国35个大中城市2000-2016年城市面板数据,本文对这一因果链条进行实证检验。研究发现:地方政府通过推高土地出让收益来缓解自身财政压力,而提高土地交易价格又是推高土地出让收益的重要手段;地方政府区别对待不同用途的土地,财政压力对住宅用地价格的影响明显高于工业和商业服务业用地;财政压力对房价的上涨起重要推动作用,地价是连接两者间的中间变量;最后,财政压力对房价的影响在2004年"招拍挂"制度施行后有所减弱。文章的实证结果在考虑内生性以及城市控制变量后仍然稳健。

In recent years,the hypothesis that the rise in China’s housing prices has been driven by land prices,while the rise in land prices has been driven by the fiscal pressure of local governments,has not been empirically supported.Based on the analysis of the government’s behavior model under fiscal pressure,using the panel data of cities in China from 2000 to 2016 in 35 large and medium cities,this article conducts an empirical test on this causal chain.The study finds that local governments eased their fiscal pressure by pushing up land transfer income,and raising land transaction prices is an important means of boosting land transfer income;local governments treat land of different uses differently,and the impact of fiscal pressure on residential land prices is significantly higher than that of industrial and commercial services;fiscal pressure plays an important role in driving up housing prices;finally,the impact of fiscal pressure on housing prices was implemented after the implementation of the‘recruit,auction and hang’system in 2004 somewhat weakened.The empirical results of the article remain robust after considering endogenous and urban control variables.