农民收入与城镇化、工业化、信息化的关系研究——基于SVAR模型

Research on the Relationship between the Income of Farmers and Urbanization,Industrialization and Informatization——Based on SVAR Model

在国家相继提出“全面建成小康社会”和“建设社会主义现代化强国”的背景下,研究农民收入和城镇化、工业化、信息化的关系兼具理论和现实意义。选取1978年至2018年的年度数据,运用SVAR模型、协整性和平稳性检验、方差分解和脉冲响应、格兰杰因果检验等多个时间序列方法分析了农民收入与城镇化、工业化、信息化的关系,得到的结论是农民收入与工业化、城镇化、信息化存在长期均衡关系,农民收入和信息化受城镇化同期正向影响,农民收入对自身的贡献率最大。最后依次给出了长期发展、短期发展、农民自身发展方面的策略。

In the context of the country has put forward the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the building of a great modern socialist country,it is of both theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between the income of farmers and the industrialization informatization urbanization.The an nual data from 1978 to 2018 are used to analyze the relationship between the income of farmers and“the three changes”by using several time series methods such as SVAR model,cointegration and stationarity test,variance decomposition and impulse response granger causality test.The conclusion is that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the income of farmers and the informatization industrialization urbanization.The income of farmers and informatization is positively affected by urbanization in the same period.The contribution rate of in come of farmers is the largest.Finally,it gives the strategies of long-term development,short-term development and self-development of farmers.