考虑地市发展阶段的省级电网差异化投资策略

Differentiated Investment Strategy of Provincial Power Grid Considering Development Stage of City Region

输配电价改革环境下电网企业的盈利方式发生变化,提升电网企业精准投资能力对电网企业未来发展具有重要意义。首先,基于Logistic模型针对人均用电量指标分析地市发展阶段,并引入地市经济与电网发展的适应性进行结果修正;其次,对输配电价动态调整机制进行分析,构建电网投资规划策略的评估模型及流程,以全部新建、全部扩建以及新建扩建并行3种典型模式设计电网差异化投资策略;最后,选取4个典型地市进行测算分析。结果表明,处于后快速发展阶段的地市应采取全部新建投资策略,而处于饱和增长发展阶段的地市应采取全部扩建模式,处于快速增长发展阶段的地市其最优投资策略应进行具体分析。文中提出的考虑输配电价核定和地市发展阶段的电网差异化投资策略,可以在传统投资决策基础上为省级电网在各个地市之间进行资源优化提供参考。

In the environment of transmission and distribution electricity price reform,the profit mode of power grid enterprises has been changed.It is of great significance for the future development of power grid enterprises to improve the precision investment ability.Firstly,based on the Logistic model,this paper analyzes the development stage of city region according to the electricity consumption per capita,and introduces the adaptability of city regional economy and power grid development to revise the results.Secondly,the dynamic adjustment mechanism of transmission and distribution price is analyzed,and the evaluation model and process of power grid investment planning strategy are constructed.The differential investment strategy of power grid is designed in three typical modes,i.e.,all new construction,all expansion and parallel construction.Finally,four typical cities are selected for the calculation and analysis.The results show that on the one hand,the city regions in the post-rapid development stage should adopt all new investment strategies,on the other hand,the city regions in the saturated growth stage should adopt all expansion models,and the optimal investment strategies of the city regions in the rapid growth stage should be analyzed concretely.Based on the traditional investment decision-making,the strategy of grid differentiated investment considering transmission and distribution price verification and city regional development stage can provide reference for the resource optimization of provincial power grid among cities.