促进还是抑制:中国对非直接投资的对外援助效应

PROMOTING OR SUPPRESSING: CHINA’S FOREIGN AID EFFECT ON FDI IN AFRICA

论文聚焦中国对非援助与对非直接投资的不确定性关系,将援助细分为社会基础设施援助、实物资本援助、经济基础设施援助、政府和民间社会援助四种类型,构建了援助与投资的解析模型;基于中国对非洲52个国家的援助项目数和直接投资项目数,利用分位数回归方法,分别考察了中国对非援助项目总量及各类型援助在对非直接投资项目中的作用。研究发现:(1)中国对非援助集中在东非、南非,援助项目总数、各类型援助项目数、对非直接投资项目的空间分布具有很高的相似性。(2)中国对非援助类型结构相对均衡,对非援助在中国对非直接投资中发挥着先锋促进效应。其中,经济基础设施援助的促进效应强劲、稳定,且强度随分位数提高有浅U型变动特征;实物资本援助、社会基础设施援助的促进作用分别在对非直接投资项目少、中等数量下促进效果显著;政府和民间援助的促进作用不显著。(3)友好城市关系、出口关系与双边政治关系分别仅在中国对非直接投资项目较少、中等规模、大规模情形下显著,空间关系的影响不显著。(4)受援国人口规模的促进影响最清晰、最稳健;成本规避、资源寻求、受援国的投资环境质量和腐败状况的影响尚不清晰。中国在非投资有追随他国投资区位的倾向,但这一倾向仅在经济基础设施模型中显著。

This paper focuses on the uncertain relationship between China’s aid and foreign direct investment to Africa by constructing an analytical model,in which the aid is divided into four types:social infrastructure,physical,economic infrastructure,and governmental&civil assistance.Based on the numbers of projects of China’s aid and direct investment to 52 African countries,a quantile regression method is used to evaluate the roles played by total aid and various aid types respectively in China’s investment activities at Africa.The results are as follows:1)China’s aid to Africa is mainly concentrated in East Africa and South Africa;And there exist high degrees of similarity between the spatial distribution of total aid,various aid,and foreign direct investment to Arica.2)The structure of China’s aid to Africa is relatively balanced,and the aid plays a vanguard promoting role in China’s direct investment in Africa;Furthermore,different types of aid programs have different effects.3)Friendly inter-city relations,export relations and bilateral political relationships have a significant effect on China’s direct investment when the numbers of investment projects from China are small,medium and large in sequence,respectively.However,the impact of the spatial relationships between China and African countries are not significant.4)The promotion effect is the clearest and most robust in terms of population of recipient countries,while the effect of cost-avoidance,resource seeking,the conditions of the investment environment and governmental corruption is unclear.